How to build an above-median merit case in a 3.5% budget year

The budget is the first fact, not the last

Before you argue for a raise, confirm the budget. The pay budget is the first thing to read, because the size of the budget decides what a case can carry.

A merit case that skips this step often sounds like a personal appeal. It may be true, but it is not spendable. The reviewer has to fit your request into a budget that is already divided by role, level, and performance. If you do not know the budget, you cannot show why your claim deserves a larger amount.

The 2027 average U.S. base-pay increase is projected at 3.5%, after an actual 3.4% in 2026. The median follows the same line: 2026 actual was 3.4%, and 2027 planned is 3.5%. The 2027 pay budget sets 3% aside for merit increases. That leaves little room for need, tenure, or general inflation talk.

Merit increases are the most common raise type, with 89% of companies offering them, followed by promotional increases at 69%, salary structure increases at 43%, and inflation or cost-of-living increases at 31%. The raise budget is not a universal check. In 2027, 77% of non-managerial exempt, managerial exempt, and non-exempt workers will get raises. Keep a short note with the total budget, the merit amount, and the group funding expectation.

Above-median means you beat the middle, not the average

Position your work against the median. The median is the midpoint that separates the lower half of the distribution from the upper half, and it is the number a reviewer can defend in a spreadsheet.

The median is also a political number. It is the one a committee can defend when someone asks why one person got more than another. If your evidence only proves you did your job, the median is enough. If your evidence proves you changed the unit's output, the median becomes the floor, not the ceiling.

Peanut butter pay is the flat raise that treats everyone the same; 32% of organizations intend to use it in 2027, down from 44% before 2026. Across-the-board increases were given by 36% of organizations in 2026, while 32% plan a standard increase in 2027 and 8% remain undecided. If your case asks for the planned median, you are asking for the middle, not above it.

The comparison should show what the median covers, what your work added, and why the extra amount is earned.

Impact must be spendable, not just impressive

Quantify impact in the language the org can spend. A merit case is a claim that your contribution changed the cost, speed, or quality of the unit's work.

Name the level you are moving from and the level you are moving into, because the org chart decides what the next step is worth. Tie the work to a budget item, a headcount decision, a revenue number, or a cost avoided. If the work is internal, translate it into time, error rate, cycle time, or support load.

The org chart matters because levels carry more than titles, and they are the unit's way of pricing responsibility. A case that ignores the chart often loses, even when the person is good. If your work has already moved into the next level, say so plainly. If it has not, keep the ask tied to the current level. A kind manager will not pretend the chart is optional.

The usual mistake is to list duties as if they were results. A duty says what you do; a result says what changed because you did it. Build the list around a number, a baseline, and the change you caused.

The ask has to be specific enough to survive review

Make a specific above-median ask. Vague asks fail in committee because they force the reviewer to invent the number and the justification. State the requested increase, the effective date, and the evidence item that supports it.

If the budget is tight, ask for the smallest above-median step that still reflects the level change. A manager can say no to a vague ask without feeling like they are denying a person. The ask should be short enough to read quickly. It should also be hard to misread.

If the number is missing, the reviewer may fill it with the default. If the reason is missing, the reviewer may fill it with the median. Your job is to make the above-median choice the easiest defensible choice.

• Confirm the budget and merit amount.
• Position your work against the median.
• Quantify impact.
• Make a specific above-median ask.